| pmi group,inc. (the) |
PMI |  |
09:35 AM EST 0 hours 5 minutes after Market Open |
Market Open |
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| The PMI Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2005 Net Income of $95.7 Million; Hurricane Katrina Related Charges Reduce Quarter... |
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Combine Heads UpTM Thumbs Up / Thumbs Down recommendations with Supply/Demand indicators for more trading power!
Learn how it works!
First, a review of MediaSentiment Heads UpTM:
MediaSentiment's core service, Heads UpTM, provides users with up-to-the-minute info about public sentiment. It examines all stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ in close to real time as they release quarterly earnings statements. Heads UpTM then creates a thumbs up or thumbs down recommendation for each stock using advanced algorithms to determine the sentiment, positive or negative, behind its earnings report's language.
MediaSentiment Heads UpTM conveys a wide range of trading advantages to individuals, and bundled with other financial software, also creates benefits for companies offering online trading services. MediaSentiment Heads UpTM has the advantage over many old generation tools for analyzing the news that matters in finance.
Heads UpTM delivers:
What supply/demand indicators add to Heads UpTM:
While there are many technical indicators that enhance Heads UpTM, MediaSentimentTM chose two as an example:
About the indicators:
The Commodity Channel Index is used primarily to identify beginning and ending of cycles in futures markets and is commonly used to identify buy and sell opportunities. The CCI is calculated so that 70-80% of all price activity falls between +100 and -100 on its vertical scale. Many analysts believe a long position is indicated when the CCI exceeds +100 while a short position is indicated when the CCI falls below -100 but these values should be based more on your market analysis. For example, you may decide that for the market you are evaluating, a -125 indicates taking a short position while a +150 indicates taking a long position.
Many analysts also use this indicator to indicate overbought and oversold markets, much like an oscillator. Breakouts above the overbought line indicate an overbought market and breakdowns below the oversold line indicate an oversold market. The CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the amount of time it spends in the neutral position (between the Overbought and Oversold lines). Many analysts believe the CCI crossing above or below zero identifies market conditions before the Overbought and Oversold lines are crossed.
The Stochastic Fast indicator calculates the location of a current price in relation to its range over a period of bars. The default settings are to use the most recent 14 bars (input StochLength), the high and low of that period to establish a range (input PriceH and PriceL) and the close as the current price (input PriceC). This calculation is then indexed and plotted as FastK. A smoothed average of FastK, known as FastD, is also plotted. FastK and FastD plot as oscillators with values from 0 to 100. The direction of the Stochastics should confirm price movement. For example, rising Stochastics confirm rising prices.
Stochastics can also help identify turning points when there are non-confirmations or divergences. For example, a new high in price without a new high in Stochastics may indicate a false breakout. Stochastics are also used to identify overbought and oversold conditions when the Stochastics reach extreme highs above 80 or extreme lows below 20. Additionally, FastK crossing above the smoother FastD can be a buy signal and vice versa.
MediaSentimentTM utilizes CCI as an overbought/oversold indicator. Because our research is based on short term news driven events we adjust the indicator to reflect a length of seven days. In addition, over bought indications occur at 110 and greater whereas oversold indications occur at -110 and lower.
A Thumbs Up rating accompanied (correlated) with an oversold indication from both CCI & Stochastic signals a long position. A Thumbs Down rating accompanied (correlated) with an overbought indication from both CCI & Stochastic signals a short position.
Here's a tutorial demonstrating how combining Heads UpTM recommendations with CCI and Stochastics signaled increased profits on a selection of stocks while reducing investors' risks.
1) For the purpose of this tutorial, we select for indicators and trade as follows:
For our tutorial, we have selected three stocks, all of which show the profitability and accuracy when Heads Up, CCI and Stochastics all indicate the same trading action, either a buy or a sell indication.
| pmi group,inc. (the) |
PMI | |
09:35 AM EST 0 hours 5 minutes after Market Open |
Market Open |
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| The PMI Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2005 Net Income of $95.7 Million; Hurricane Katrina Related Charges Reduce Quarter... |
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| mcdermott international, inc. |
MDR |  |
04:35 PM EST 0 hours 35 minutes after After-Market Open |
After-Market Open |
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| McDermott Reports Third Quarter 2005 Results; Net Income of $58.5 Million, $0.80 Per Diluted Share | ||||||||||||
| deckers outdoor corporation |
DECK | |
07:31 AM EST 1 hour 59 minutes before Market Open |
Pre-Market Open |
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| Deckers Outdoor Corporation Reports Second Quarter Results; Company Confirms High-End of Previous Guidance for Fiscal 2005 |
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At Media SentimentTM we believe that successful trading comes from proper money management. In the event that a position moves against expectations, we recommend that a 3% stop loss rule be enforced. If a long position is to be initiated simply take the opening price of the day and multiply it by .03%. Take this result and subtract it from the opening price to get your stop limit. If the stock price moves down to this level then simply close out the position for a minimal loss.
Let's look at the sample stocks above. .03% of PMI's opening price of $41.40 is $1.24. Since PMI indicated a short position the .03% is added to the opening price for a stop loss of $42.64. Had the days price risen to this level we would have immediately closed out the position for a $1.24 loss.
MDR indicated a long position at the opening price of $36.25. A .03% stop loss would have been placed at $35.17. If the price had dropped to $35.17 the position would have been immediately closed for a loss of $1.08.
By applying a 3% stop loss rule losses are limited thereby preserving capital and allowing us to continue to profit in other trades. We have also found that by applying a 7% target to our picks can also increase gains on certain positions.
E-motionsTM arms readers with self-knowledge about the emotions behind their own investing so that they can improve their financial strategies.
The basis of the research behind every issue of E-motionsTM are the highly predictive thumbs up / thumbs down recommendations MediaSentiment's Heads UpTM service produces for NYSE and NASDAQ companies.
E- motionsTM addresses financial and media psychology in an entirely new way, focusing on the companies featured each week on MediaSentiment Heads UpTM. The newsletter explores case studies high-lighting the relationship between big price moves in MediaSentimentTM featured stocks, news coverage, and investor sentiment. Each week's topic gives unique insight into the behavior of other investors and movement in the market. The result is that investors who subscribe to MediaSentimentTM to trade can recognize the market patterns discussed in E-motionsTM behind Heads UpTM recommendations for individual stocks. Consequently, these smart investors can better predict which stocks will subsequently become Big Movers and create bigger opportunities for profit.
A Few of the Financial Trends the Newsletter Has Made "Emotions in Focus":
Q: What is media sentiment?
A: Media sentiment is a measurement of the sentiment that a particular news article would convey to the reader. We have developed algorithms and software programs that could sift through thousands and thousands of news articles and make a determination of what the overall media sentiment is about a particular company for a particular period of time, down to each individual publication and article.
Q: How is MediaSentimentTM different than other technology?
A: The main factor that sets MediaSentimentTM apart is that, for the purpose of facilitating fast decision making, it focuses on the overall sentiment about a public company; that sentiment is conveyed by the news articles that are published and it enters (or has the potential to enter) the "public mind", or a group of people who may think in a similar way. Meanwhile, the other technology that currently exists on the market focuses on finding information (search engines), analyzing text (text analysis tools) or media analysis for public relations purposes.
Q: What makes media sentiment a good indicator of stock price?
A: News reaches a group of investors and market players in a particular company. When the news is out of the ordinary and unexpected, investors and market players react quickly to protect themselves or to benefit from it. News articles become catalysts which produce an 'imbalance' in the market place. Our research suggests that the media sentiment prevails more than anything during the period immediately following the release of the news. That is the period when the 'public mind' (i.e., a group of investors and market players with interest in a particular company) is influenced the most by the news.
In time, as more news becomes available, it determines a trend of media sentiment which affects the overall sentiment of the public interested in a particular public company.
Q: Do Heads UpTM thumbs up / thumbs down always serve as buy or sell signals?
A: MediaSentiment Heads UpTM gives a thumbs up / thumbs down recommendation on an earnings release. From the MediaSentimentTM point of view this is a buy / sell recommendation. However, investors are responsible for making their own buy and sell decisions. We recognize that there may be instances when our algorithms might not correlate with the direction of the market. Also, recognize that MediaSentimentTM does not do financial analysis. In addition, there are market and economic factors that could affect the stock prices of various companies. Therefore, investors need to make allowances for a multitude of variables when they make the buy/sell decisions or trade.
Q: One company got a thumbs down recommendation, but the stock price went up significantly. What gives?
A: Investors need to consider multiple variables when making decisions. If MediaSentiment Heads UpTM gave one rating and the stock reacted the other way, there might have been market forces that made that determination based on additional data. For instance, if the company reports a net loss for the quarter, MediaSentimentTM will most likely give it a thumbs down rating. However, other indicators might show improvement in the company's financials and create optimism in the market which would pull the stock up. Also, other news following the release, such as analyst upgrades and downgrades can have a significant impact on the stock prices.
Q: How can Media Sentiment analyze earnings release sentiment - is it even possible?
A: While it is not always easy to assess the tone of news articles, some articles, earnings releases in particular, are more straightforward than others. Regulation FD (Full Disclosure) requires that public companies disclose material information simultaneously and promptly. Therefore, the tone of a release about material information might be easier to evaluate than, say an article in a local publication that talks about the company's culture and employment opportunities.
Our technology is based on algorithms developed internally over a number of years. The main premise is 'statistical significance' of the information entering, or about to enter, the public mind. The premise is that, in particular situations, tone would be interpreted the same way by more people that are part of a group with similar interests and/or ways of thinking.
Q: How do you calculate the correlation between the stock price and the media sentiment measures from Heads UpTM?
A: We look at the highs and lows and compare the values with the previous closing price. For instance, if the news came after 4:00 PM EST or before 9:30 AM EST we look at the highs and lows during the next Regular trading session. If we rated the stock a thumbs down and the difference between the low and previous closing price is negative we consider that good correlation. Similarly, if we rated a stock thumbs up and the difference between the high and the previous closing price is greater than zero, we consider that to be a positive correlation.
Q: How do I make sure I get current Heads UpTM data so I can trade on the latest media sentiment?
A: Heads UpTM gives almost-instant recommendations on stocks as they release earnings, so keep your browser open as you trade for the latest updates. Also remember to refresh your browser to get thumbs up / thumbs down recommendations and to read earnings reports as they are released.
Or: